Aaron’s 499 Preview

While this weekend is the culmination of hours of film study and interviews for NFL teams as they draft their next stars, the boys of NASCAR hit the high banked, fast and long track in Talladega, Alabama. Many people want to know who their favorite team will pick, and even more will tune in for the ridiculous second by second break down of each and every single pick.

Here’s something that you might be able to do with your time that won’t be a waste of it; watch the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series hold one of the most breathtaking races of the year at the 2.67 mile long Talladega Superspeedway. Talladega is, like Daytona, known for its tight packs and big wrecks.

As a fan, you either hate restrictor plate racing, or you love it. As a fan you on either side of that argument, you still watch this race on the edge of your seat, wondering when one of the 43 machines will make a slight bobble and send the field into a screeching mess of sliding tires and bent sheet metal.

But, through it all, one man stands unscathed at the end of the race, holding a trophy in victory lane. Although we’ve seen fans pelt drivers’ cars with cans of adult beverages during victory celebrations and the car that was first back to the checkers come home with an 18^th place finish, this track offers some drivers a test of skill and luck. Some guys have all the luck…well, you know how that goes.

These following storylines are what I consider to be the biggest heading into this weekend’s showdown in Talladega.

1. Which of these following drivers will win this weekend? Or will one of the 40 other drivers take home the checkers?

A. Kyle Busch

He dominated at Daytona until a mid-race wreck (which really wasn’t his fault, if you recall) took his car out of contention. Another thing Busch has in his favor is the car he’s driving. Ever since Toyota broke into Cup racing a few years back, they have dominated races at restrictor plate tracks.

Kyle Busch led quite a handful of laps at Daytona. Can he take his Joe Gibbs Toyota to the front at Talladega?

I think we’ll see Kyle up front at Talladega, and after the late race pit road speeding penalty relegated him to a 17th place finish at Phoenix, he looks to rebound at this weekend. Can “Wild Thing” win his third race of 2009? He needs some luck and breaks to get to victory lane, but we all know the horsepower he has under the hood, and his level of talent can get him there.

B. Tony Stewart

He finished runner up to Mark Martin at Phoenix, and had it not been for the 50-year old, Tony Stewart might have won. Of course the last time we watched a race at Talladega, Tony Stewart came in a close second to Regan Smith, but was deemed the winner by NASCAR. Oh the controversy that ensued that particular event.

"Smoke" won the race last time the Cup Series ran at Talladega.

Can he make it two straight at the longest track on the schedule?

Tony did well while at Joe Gibbs Racing, and flexed his muscle in the JGR Toyotas. Now, as a driver/owner he gets to basically pilot a Hendrick car. And we all know how good the Hendrick camp has been at restrictor plate tracks in the past. I also think we’ll see “Smoke” up front near the end of the race, barring any catastrophies during the race.

C. Mark Martin

It’s been a great week to be a Mark Martin fan—believe me, we’ve all been on cloud, well, cloud five. After snapping his 97-race winless streak at Phoenix last Saturday evening, many media members have chimed in about NASCAR’s “Old Man”. But, can he put all the joy aside and win his second straight race? Can he dodge the wrecks and misfortune that have taken him out of events at Talladega in the past?

Mark Martin dominated Phoenix and started second in Daytona. Can he keep us his string of good runs and not get caught up in the "Big One" which has plagued him at Talladega in the past?

He hasn’t been to the longest track on the circuit in two seasons because, quite simply, he hates the place. But, we all know that Mark qualified on the outside pole for the season opening Daytona 500, and had a decent car throughout the rain-shortened race. Will it be a lucky day for Mark, or will that bout with the “Big One” occur again?

2. New faces in Victory Lane?

This season we’ve seen six winners in eight races. Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch have each captured two wins, while Kyle’s older brother Kurt Busch, and Hendrick teammates Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin all have taken home one win. Will we see a new face doing donuts and a burnout this week (unless Mark wins again, and we’ve all learned his policy on celebrations)?

Hendrick Motorsports has won three straight races. Can they make it four straight? Will Dale Earnhardt Jr return to victory circle in a place that he once owned as a driver for his father’s team? I’m willing to bet no, but at a place that is almost 75 percent luck, anything can happen.

3. Crew and crew chief changes…How will they affect racing this weekend?

In other “new faces” news, it was announced yesterday that Richard Childress is moving the entire crews of Casey Mears’s and Kevin Harvick’s teams to the other driver in hopes to get better results for both drivers.

RCR took on Mears, who was driving for Hendrick last season in the #5 car, and he has been disappointing this season, after taking the reins of the #07 Jack Daniels Chevy. Clint Bowyer, who moved to RCR’s fourth team this year has outperformed Mears. However, this move will not take place until after Talladega, so it may not directly effect racing this weekend, but the mental attitudes of both the #07 and the #29 teams might be affected.

Also, Ben Leslie will take over for Bobby Labonte’s #96 Ask.com team. Leslie was a former crew chief of the man who was in victory lane last Saturday evening. I see this change as nothing but good for the 2000 Winston Cup champ. Hopefully it will bring Yates Racing back to the competitive state that it once was in.

4. “The Big One”… Not if, but when

It will be overly covered this weekend, perhaps the second most overly talked about issue behind the NFL draft. As a fan of NASCAR I’ve seen too many of these things, and you know when it happens, it takes out quite a few good cars. Some of these “Big Ones” have taken out up to 20 plus machines in one fell swoop. It’s a product of restrictor plate racing, and as I said above, it comes down to luck for most drivers.

At the world’s largest superspeedway these wrecks occur with regularity. However, the biggest questions I pose heading into this weekend are both short term and long term. Who will “The Big One”, or “Big Ones”—plural—take out? Which drivers will get caught up in someone else’s bad day and which drivers will have lady luck on their side as they find a way to miraculously dodge these huge pile ups? Plus, how will these wrecks affect points, both the top 12 and the top 35?

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Races like these will keep fans of all ages and interest levels on the edge of their proverbial seat because of the sporadic nature of the wrecks and tight quarters. It’s going to be one hectic ride, so, “Reach up there and pull those belts tight” as Larry McReynolds would say. Tune in on Sunday for the race, and I’ll pop my head back in on Monday with some final thoughts on the weekend of racing at Talladega.