The Daytona 500: Where points don’t matter

In Jimmie Johnson’s quest for five straight NASCAR Sprint Cup titles, the first race doesn’t matter. But it does. The Daytona 500 counts for points, but the only spot that matters is first back to the checkers.

They don’t remember who finishes second at Daytona, only the guy who wins. When the green flag drops to commence the 2010 season on Sunday, 43 drivers have a shot at capturing NASCAR’s ultimate prize; the Harley J. Earl trophy given to the winner of the Daytona 500.

Here are some of my thoughts and storylines to keep an eye on this Valentine’s Day:

1. Will there be a first-time winner at Daytona?
Sooner or later Tony Stewart has to get it together and win at Daytona right? Kyle Busch has had his fair share of dominating performances in Daytona, but also has never been able to win. And Mark Martin came within feet of winning the Daytona 500 in 2007, but couldn’t pull off the win.

Martin and Busch raced side-by-side yesterday. Could they be battling side-by-side for the win on Sunday?

So the real question is which of these three has the best shot at bringing home the win on Sunday? My money is obviously not on the 51-year-old polesitter or the second-year driver-owner, and here’s why. Mark Martin has terrible luck at Daytona and Tony Stewart can’t seem to put together a complete race at Daytona without something going wrong.

But in 1998 Dale Earnhardt finally found a way to put everything together and win his first, and only, Daytona 500. Maybe this weekend Martin, Stewart or Busch will finally find the way to Victory Lane in the “Great American Race”.

2. Or will a familiar face visit Victory Lane?
Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are all racing this weekend. Each has at least one victory in the Daytona 500.

Kenseth (left) should impart some knowledge on how to win at Daytona to Mark Martin

Although Newman timed third in his individual qualifying lap, his finish of eighth in Duel 1 will mean he starts 17th on Sunday. Gordon will start 21st Kenseth will have to start 24th, but Johnson, Harvick and Earnhardt Jr. will all have great starting spots. Will they be able to keep their great field position throughout the 200 lap event on Sunday? That’s their number one objective heading to the green.

3. Will Hendrick Motorsports continue their domination of Speedweeks?
All signs point to this year being no different from last year for the proclaimed “Superteam” of NASCAR. Not only will Johnson, Martin and Gordon be strong, but it seems that Earnhardt Jr. is turning his team around as well.

The HMS domination of Speedweeks began with Martin and Earnhardt Jr. grabbing the front row of the Daytona 500, and continued yesterday with the Gatorade Duels. Martin led 28 laps of the first qualifying race, which Johnson won. Gordon led five laps of the race and Johnson led seven.

Post race Johnson was pleased, saying, “Our plan today was to go out and race as hard as we could, take chances, see if we could win. If we could win with this car, we would sleep well the nights leading up to the 500. Clearly we're going to be snoozing well.”

And the rest of the field will be having nightmares, knowing full well that they’re all still gunning for the big boys at HMS.

4. How many “Big Ones” will we see?
I don’t know about you, but the part of the Duels that I was able to watch yesterday had me on edge. At one point Michael Waltrip drove through a turn sideways, and somehow saved his car from spinning numerous times.

The Black Eyed Peas would be proud of me because “I’ve Gotta Feeling” that Sunday is going to be one wild ride.

Will there be more than more than one “Big One”? Who will it take out? Whose dreams will be smashed—literally—by one wrong move? Who will be able to get their car handling ‘just right’ for the mad dash to the finish on lap 200, or 201, or 202, or 203 …?

Wrecks like this one from Talladega last fall are all too common at Daytona as well

That’s right, NASCAR’s new green-white-checkered finish rule will probably be put to the test this weekend. NASCAR’s new rule states that drivers must take the white flag under a green flag condition, or they’ll re-try the G-W-C finish. I have a feeling we’ll see a lot of “Big Ones” this weekend with that new rule in place.
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Enjoy the race and the race weekend, not to mention the double hit of Valentine’s Day on Sunday. I could think of very few things on this planet that I love more than NASCAR, so it’s almost a perfect match made in heaven.

Happy Daytona 500 everyone, the countdown is done!