Only four drivers are locked in to the Chase, while those in positions five through fourteen will hold their collective breaths for 400 laps around the .75 mile Richmond ring. A good portion of the night will be spent “Chase watching,” which is a phrase that ESPN probably will have to copyright after this race.
If your favorite driver isn’t one of the eight guys battling for a Chase berth, it’s not even worth watching this race: ESPN could care less about your man. But, the stress level will be high for the millions of followers of the eight drivers who need to make NASCAR’s version of a playoff, and the stress on the team members and crew chiefs of those teams might be even higher.
Matt Kenseth won the title in 2003, and Martin has finished second four times
NASCAR was a sport born and bred in the southern states of America, a place known for its warm weather and friendly people. People whose patriotism has never been questioned, especially on the days following 9-11-2001.
You remember where you where, you remember what you felt, you remember how all the little things—NASCAR included—didn’t mean a damn thing on that Tuesday night in early September. No doubt the folks at NASCAR, who stopped a race on Memorial Day to pay tribute to those who are fighting for our freedom, will make a special effort this weekend to pay tribute to all those whose lives were lost on that day.
And then the fans will get charged up, the drivers will strap in, and the racing will resume.
Here’s the deal, Matt Kenseth, who is in twelfth, can win and he’s in, something that now estranged driver Jeremy Mayfield did in 2004 to clinch a spot in NASCAR’s first “Chase”. In fact, since there’s no better way to put it, I copied a graphic from NASCAR.com that I think shows the best way that each driver in the top twelve can qualify for the Chase on Saturday night.
Graphic copied from NASCAR.com(http://www.nascar.com/2009/news/features/09/10/numbers.cup.richmond2/index.html)
The numbers show promise for Edwards who is all but locked in. It would take a catastrophic failure for him to miss out, but his engine woes last weekend certainly won’t help his team as they prepare for this weekend. Same goes for Kahne and Busch. I think if all three of them finish on the lead lap, they’re in.
Juan Pablo Montoya has been “big picture points racing” for the past three months, and while that conservative side has netted him some points, it will also hurt him in the long run. He needs a middle-of-the-road finish of 18th or better to lock himself in. I think that his conservative style of play will hurt him after Richmond, but for this race at Richmond, he’s good as the gold color on his native flag of Columbia.
Newman, Biffle and Mark Martin all need to not only stay on the lead lap, but also need to stay within eyesight of the leader. If they can accomplish that, I feel they’re safe enough to be in the show. Newman and Martin have average finishes between 11th and 12th while Biffle’s average finish is 15th. As long as each has an average night, count ‘em in.
Then there’s Kenseth, winner of the first two races and a man who has been not so good since. If he wins, he’s in, and win, place or show might put Matt in—depending on the circumstances. He’s got the most tenuous path to finding himself locked in, but if he does it, he’ll find himself re-seeded with twenty bonus points. Bonus points that crew chief Drew Blickensderfer won’t want to leave hanging on the outside.
From here it becomes a case of math equations so difficult to figure out that even the smartest math students have trouble figuring the results. Brian Vickers sits twenty marks outside Kenseth for twelfth place, meaning that he has to keep his Red Bull Toyota at least four to five spots ahead of the DeWalt Fusion in order to pass Kenseth in the points.
Kyle Busch—who by the way won the May race at Richmond—needs to make up 37 points on Kenseth in twelfth place. Kyle Busch will go all out in order to win this one, which makes him a dangerous fantasy pick. It’s feast or famine for the driver of the #18 car.
If he makes it, he’ll enjoy the view from the top of the standings for at least one week where he’ll be tied with Mark Martin for the points lead. If he doesn’t, then his four wins and forty bonus points will vanish into thin air; right along with his championship hopes.
Did you keep up with that? Well, even if you didn’t, I hope I provided some insight into what I think may happen on Saturday evening. I’m just a little bummed out that I’ll be filming some division one football (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4T26x6GZEw) and not watching the race.
Check back in on Sunday for some thoughts on the race and possibly some thoughts on Saturday evening’s college football games. Oh, and until then, enjoy this video to pump you up for the NFL opening Sunday.
Go Dolphins!
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