Monday, July 13, 2009

Can Mark Martin repeat his Chicago performance at Indy?

As a fan of Mark Martin nothing made me happier than to see the “Old Man” dominate at Chicago on Saturday evening. Knowing that we’re just 13 days and a few hours away from the drop of the green at Indy, it makes it that much better.

Mark Martin hasn’t won four races in a season since 1998. In fact, he’s only done it four times; in’98 (where he won a career high seven), 1997 and 1995 (four races) and 1993 (five races). In 1993 he won four races in a row, starting at Watkins Glen. He reeled off three more wins at Michigan, Bristol and Darlington, all back-to-back-to-back.

But, can he do it in 2009? Can he do it at Indianapolis? Can he win the Brickyard 400 for the first time in 16 tries?


Mark won at Chicago, and he's never won there. Guess where else he's never won?

In order to figure that out, we have to look back at the past. After all, “those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Driving into the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the first time can be breathtaking, exhilarating and just plain exciting. So, imagine the first Winston Cup race at Indy in 1994. Coming off a win at Talladega, Jimmy Spencer promptly wrecked his McDonalds Ford on lap nine.

In fact, wrecks and bad luck seem to be something that happens on occasion to previous race winners at Indy during the next race. In 1996, the first year I attended the Brickyard 400, Jeff Gordon sat on the pole but put his DuPont Chevy in the wall off of turn four just 40 laps into the race. And, in 2004, previous race winner Jimmie Johnson blew his engine, whacked that same turn four wall extremely hard, doesn’t recall driving his car back to his pit area, and ended up finishing 36th.

But, in 1997, coming off a race at the 2.5 mile Pocono raceway, Dale Jarrett started, and finished, 3rd at Indy. In 1998, coming off of a win at Pocono, Jeff Gordon won at Indy. Guess who finished second in both of those races? Mark Martin.

So, it’s not like he hasn’t done this before.

In 1999, Bobby Labonte won at Pocono, which is similar to Indianapolis with its long straightaways and flat corners. He finished runner up to Dale Jarrett the next weekend at Indy, and he led a lap. In 2000 Labonte had his chance to kiss the bricks, but Rusty Wallace, who had won at Pocono, dominated the Brickyard. He led 110 laps on his way to finishing second to Labonte.

And it seemed for a moment that Martin would lead the most laps on Saturday but not come home with the win. But, as with any championship level driver, Martin held his composure and raced until the checkers flew.

At the 2002 Brickyard 400, Martin’s now fellow quinquagenarian (that’s right, a guy over fifty, but younger than sixty…You learn something new every day) Bill Elliott kissed the bricks after winning at Pocono the week before. He led 93 laps and even started on the outside pole. In 2007, Tony Stewart went on a mid-summer tear. He won at Chicago and followed it up with a repeat win at Indy in the next Cup event.


Stewart in 2005, getting ready to take a practice run

Overall, the previous race winner has averaged a starting spot of 11.5, with one pole, two outside poles, and three times the previous race winner has started the next race—the Brickyard 400—in third. Previous race winners finish in 13.5 spot on average, but if we don’t count the races where the previous race winner crashed out at Indy, the average finishing spot of the previous race winner is just over 7th place.

What I’m looking for as a fan of Mark Martin is the chance for him to ride the momentum of his win at Chicago and turn it into a win at Indy. He finished second to Jeff Gordon in 1998 when Gordon completed the feat, and in 2007 he was in 6th when Tony Stewart finished off back-to-back wins on the circuit.

And, he’s done it before, albeit a very long time ago. Last year Mark came into Indy with an attitude of “no one can beat me in this car.” He even said at Pocono in June of ’08, “I’m planning on winning the Brickyard in the No. 8 car. I have never planned on anything than my plan for the Brickyard. That’s the crown jewel.”

Will he have the same confidence this season? Will Mark’s unbelievable run at Chicago fuel that same passion and fire that he had coming into Indy last season? If he does feel the same way, I’d say, “Look out,” to the opposition. Mark Martin might just win it this season.
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Join me tomorrow for more Brickyard 400 countdown coverage. He won it in 2005, and considered it an honor to win. He said, “I’m the first Indiana-born driver to win the Brickyard 400. That's an award and an honor that I’m proud to have finally.” Tomorrow I’ll talk Tony Stewart and we’ll check out Smoke’s chances to win his third Brickyard 400.

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